Market consolidating at the top of the range. On the 4 hours, BTCCNY has made a lower high which might look like a head and shoulder pattern. I am short term bearish and I am short from slightly below here at 582 (biweekly, still need to rollover). Longer term, I am much more bullish on the weekly and monthly. In addition, I realized ethereum is holding up pretty well in this big bull run up, that suggest that people are definitely holding/buying ethereum. I think when bitcoin pullback, we will see another surge higher.
Hi all, market is consolidating while inching higher on western exchanges. This is certainly a good sign in terms of trade setup, a small flag on the 4 hours on bitfinex. This shows strength rather than a top. A top is usually accompanied by large volume and volatility. What we are seeing in price action is that traders are accepting this price as "fair". Trading volume and volatility is is not big, pretty hard to see that on a rapid push up.
Between the hard folk discussion, blockstream core and the altcoin pump, we in theory should have seen market drift lower if not crash. Some on on r/btc and r/bitcoin have lost faith in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Most and I were expecting much lower prices.
Back to bitcoin. If bitcoin breaks below the supporting trendline, it is bearish. We should see further breakdown in price. I think the recent altcoin price rise is a vote for the lack of confidence in the future success of bitcoin. Traders and investors still believe in cryptocurrency, but bitcoin might not be the flagship of crypto in the future. It is this that investors/traders start to diversify into anything else. I heard other garbage tiered coins start going up too.
I will first go over the technical analysis and charting, then discuss my projections for the upcoming short term and intermediate term. Let’s take a look at the chart below. Note, the support/resistance lines were drawn a while back and some still holds true today.
I did a live bitcoin market analysis, and why I entered a shorted earlier. Usually, I give just an entry or exit, but I do go into why I think its a good short here with analysis on different indicators I look at. The link goes to a video gaming streaming channel I use to play games haha, I do no make any money or promote any product. Hope that is okay, if not, I can export to youtube which takes time to process.
Bitcoin price update,
I am still holding my short position from a while back at 446/465 weekly/quarterly at 50% size, I've added another 50% a few days ago before the drop at 439/453.
Price has stabilized a bit from yesterday's rollercoaster. We are not out yet, market is in a state of indecision. On one hand, the dip buyers who wanted to buy a dip but never got a chance this entire run up is buying now. On the other hand, those who has made big bucks is taking profit. I also believe people who were very long HOLDers are here taking advantage of the high price selling a little.
A lot of uncertainty around the forums. I've witnessed this a few times, including previously when we were at 220 for a few month. Sentiment were similar, low open interest, low usd/btc swap numbers.
The truth is that people are too damn scared to go back in for a long. Leveraged longs have been burned multiple times between the 300-200 range. I've traded since 215 and 225 and those trades were definitely the most controversial compared to others.
Market broke out of the short term consolidation, red line. Bitcoin is retesting the highs of the previous rally. A breakout above the highs and also the descending trendline is pretty bullish. I've highlighted the first target at 2420 or 395 if we do breakout. Realistically, since its so close to the round number 400, we probably will hit that.