Just got back watching The Big Shorts movie. I apologize that there has been a growing discussion and hostility towards my trades, or me or both. I never intended to hi-jack the dailies. While I cannot prove anything on the internet about my trading skills or motivation, here is what I think at this moment:
In trading, you can only control the entry, exit and position size. Once you are in a position, price is out of your control. If your trade setup is good, your position is statistically likely to be profitable, but never guaranteed. I personally think our brain sucks shit when dealing with random variables: poker, trading, and gambling. Traders, including myself, hold on to losing positions for too long, not willing to cut loss, not willing to let it go to fight another day.
Market in consolidation at 250, not much to see. Bitcoin price technically is still above previous breakout point. In other words, we have not formed a lower low, but a lower high. This is the reason I am still holding my long. If we do break below with volume, it is a sell. Bitcoin is doomed. I was on twitter and this gentlemen captured the sentiment of the average bitcoin trader with this table.
Many people have panic sold or lost all their money today. I sympathize with you. I have personally lost fortunes trading the stock/futures market, multiple times. I am not the person today if I didn't pay the most expensive tuition of all.
I'll write a few short stories later and I can tell you I am no different than any one of you. I understand the feeling of losing it all, it hurts so much that I've adapted and become much more disciplined.
People are getting real emotional on this forum. I just want to say that you need to keep calm during the volatile times. As a trader, you should have the same mentality when you are winning and losing. It is part of the ride and it is within expectation that you are not 100% correct.
That being said, I see people posting like this:
"Soon manipulators might start pump... scoop cheep coins while you can."
"Fuck it, I am buying here"
"Margin called, I am so fucked"
I've covered my short at 394 yesterday at a small profit, market has retraced back since. I honestly cannot tell which way Bitcoin will go.
Trend obviously says up in the short term since we have bottomed two weeks ago. However looking at the amount of bfx USD and BTC swaps, USD has increased by a bit. But the number of BTC swaps is at 12K! Speculators are increasing their bets on both sides. As I have said it before, one side is wrong, but I don't know which. I am going to let this play itself out until new opportunities present.
Both usd and btc swaps are increasing. Generally, they go in opposite directions since they are literally betting against each other. In the following case, only one scenario will play out.
One side of the bet is wrong, which will help push the prices further in one direction. I am inclined to say up because charts say so, but I honestly don't know.
The conclusion is out, the bulls won this one. Being on the forums long enough. There was a good number of bear haters on the forums; I for one got down voted often when I shorted.
Interesting sentiments on the forums/reddit:
While I agree that we are due for a bounce from 400x or so, it seems like almost everyone is expecting a bounce of some sort. Lots of bullish talks.
However, who will buy bitcoins at higher prices? Those who expect a bounce already bought. Only a short covering will support a bounce above 340 or higher. IE myself.