Bitcoin market update, bear flag/pullback. Monday 9-21-2014
Bitcoin market price has been very choppy this weekend. There is no trend, no predictable price movement except for the fact that price tends to get stuck at 400USD/2450CNY. Looking at the 4 hour chart, we are inside of a consolidation/bear flag like pattern. If we do bounce from here, that the arrow is the likely target. Notice the last bounce touched the 50% retracement. So I would say that Fib retracement for this down movement is pretty good. In addition, this is the area that is the upperband of a rising channel. A bounce in a bear trend is risky to predict, there are many variations to all sorts of patterns so we will have to see how this plays out.
I am still long from Friday at 391, I set my limit at 430 overnight but it didn't hit (stamp did though). I will re-adjust my exits in the future. Like I said earlier, bounces are hard to predict. Therefore, risk needs to be tightly controlled and I have a stop of 12USD. The trade's risk to reward ratio is great and as a trader all you worry about is: [chance of successful trade]*[expected price target] / [chance of failure]*[stop price]