Lowstrife's weekend analysis on bitcoin markets
Lowstrife tradingview account is here, I linked this post from reddit/r/bitcoinmarkets for his reply to my weekend update
Honestly it's difficult to see the volume for the clouds now. If someone was able to code okcoin volume so that they would remove the stupid 50,000 coin candles on the 3m (E.G a mask to remove those trades) I'd love to see some volume charts for them lately. They're a ghost town now. Bitfinex spot liquidity is down as well, along with volume for the whole rise trialing off. Aside from the massive spike to 250... not much.
Futures, like you mentioned, don't specifically have this problem but I still see volume washing. Now I wish I had screenshotted it, but tonight, there were a flurry of fake washed orders I saw on weeklies. About 15,000 contracts that had no business being traded. This is common to see, so while I DO pay attention to futures volumes and balance and premium, that... trade volume on high timeframes might not be as reliable as you think. Right now, Bitfinex and BTCe are the only exchanges with virgin volume figures.
Some past history of US actions of Silk Road coins, this one is pretty interesting.
And my bearish daily outlook. We're nested into the daily 100\200 MA\EMA set; something I've been keeping an eye on for months. Daily indicators certainly do have room for up, but unless this thing keeps trending much in a manner that we went to 315 with I simply don't see it getting past 250\260. Too many sellers from the top and in those MA's.
I see more likely option being recharge and range 220\235\250 for several more weeks. I don't see immediate doom whatsoever, but I see a pullback to recharge much more likely. That event would mean we likely conclude this year in 166\315 range like I suggested last August if $240 support broke (which it did in spectacular fashion).
Another bearish daily chart with some different views on things I touched on before.
Weekly view remains unchanged... Just sideways chop chop. Probably will end the year above 200 below 300. No strong trend to carry us out of this zone. It probably will be several months until weekly charts make enough change to be significant.