Market update 10-29-2015, Bitcoin going parabolic, no sign of stopping
**My market perspective.**
As you know I have been bullish since 217-220 At the time, it generated some controversial comments.
I was long up to about 290 when market took that first red handle which I thought was more of a exhaustive push before going lower. I shorted at 50% size. My reasoning at the time was that open interest didn't spike much, volume is relatively low, and USD swaps on bfx didn't bulge. And lets be real, I wanted a pullback after 5 days up, not asking for a lot.
After I shorted, I witnessed the true dip buying of the bulls. At every dip, even the shallowest of them, they were bought. Weekends were bought. Short term weakness became short term strength. Chart patterns that indicates possible reversal never happened. My account balance was dwindling, the wreckage of my butt was bigger than Hurricane Patrica. I cut my losses short yesterday at 315 for a 5.8% loss.
Looking at BFXdata, and other sentiment indicators. Futures are net short of 60% to 40%. BFX BTC swaps are skyrocketing. However, USD swaps hasn't moved much. This indicates a scenario where the bears are trying to pick a top while the bulls are not buying yet. The trend reverses when bulls are selling, and not the bears selling. So I expect some more upside at this point.
The market action is crazy, but trying to pick a top here is dangerous and I paid my price betting wrongly. I expect the market to get even more volatile in the coming days. Again, I would like to remind everyone if a trading engine manages to malfunction during large swings, please use limit order.