What I think about the future of bitcoin
Today on reddit, someone posted a very interesting chart about periodic tendency for bitcoin to rise every other year or so. Chart is attached below:
I'll tell you two interesting stories about predictions like this. This is also the reason I don't believe in buy and hold mentality in hopes of hitting jackpots like apple or tesla stocks. I know there are HODLers here, but hear me out.
Exhibit A: Shortly after the nasdaq bubble, google came to be. At one point, google was short on money and had no chance but to sell it for less than 1 million dollars; rejected by excite.com. How can we predict a company when Larry Page and Sergey Brin didn't even believe it.
Exhibit B: Fed-ex had its lows. At one point, they couldn't afford next day's fuel for their jets. With company's $5k usd at hand. The owner took that money and gambled blackjack at the casino. With a shit load of luck, he managed to make 13k or something to pay for next day's fuel. Then luckily, he got financing within that day. The moral of the story is that the founder obviously pushed his luck and succeeded. Thus, we get to hear this survivorship biased tale. Sadly, he himself wasn't sure if the company would survive at one point.
TDLR: We cannot predict events that are unpredictable. I believe this is also true with bitcoin. We can feel lucky, but that is gambling.